arbandy: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Too early to copy Rejected
Enters a median 94d before resolution — capital would sit idle. Reservation: margin on volume -43.6% below floor.
- Trades, 30 days
- 248 69 resolved · 28% of them
- Win rate
- 6% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -44% $2592.62 on $12412.27 traded
- Copyability
- 60 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where arbandy actually wins
Best category: Geopolitics. Conflict, diplomacy, sanctions. Low fees, sparse books, and outcomes that reprice on headlines faster than a copy can arrive.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 60 | 2 | 100% | $68.62 |
| Sports | 28 | 17 | 13% | −$252.38 |
| Other markets | 13 | 164 | 4% | −$9965.76 |
| Crypto | 10 | 65 | 0% | −$2183.56 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 94 days before resolution. Average fill size $113.96; average spread paid 4.9¢; average book liquidity $8233.23. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-15: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -43.6% below floor
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed