Arbguy: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Too early to copy Rejected
Enters a median 108d before resolution — capital would sit idle. Reservation: 61% of profit from a single trade; win rate rests on only 6 settled markets; ROI -46.1% below floor.
- Trades, 30 days
- 174 32 resolved · 18% of them
- Win rate
- 9% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -46% $6429.95 on $0.00 traded
- Copyability
- 82 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Arbguy actually wins
Best category: Geopolitics. Conflict, diplomacy, sanctions. Low fees, sparse books, and outcomes that reprice on headlines faster than a copy can arrive.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 56 | 1 | 100% | $629.66 |
| Politics | 50 | 6 | 0% | −$989.34 |
| Sports | 40 | 55 | 17% | $524.15 |
| Other markets | 15 | 112 | 0% | −$23636.72 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 108 days before resolution. Average fill size $292.59; average spread paid 0.7¢; average book liquidity $238360.87. A large share of the profit came from one market, which is not a repeatable signal.
Follow Arbguy on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed