rebotsliaf: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Too early to copy Rejected
Enters a median 99d before resolution — capital would sit idle. Reservation: win rate rests on only 5 settled markets; margin on volume -9.4% below floor.
- Trades, 30 days
- 362 26 resolved · 7% of them
- Win rate
- 38% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -9% $13213.00 on $9853.41 traded
- Copyability
- 83 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where rebotsliaf actually wins
Best category: Geopolitics. Conflict, diplomacy, sanctions. Low fees, sparse books, and outcomes that reprice on headlines faster than a copy can arrive.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 50 | 1 | 0% | −$68.88 |
| Other markets | 50 | 190 | 0% | −$1907.38 |
| Politics | 50 | 128 | 0% | −$2544.78 |
| Macro & economics | 50 | 15 | 0% | −$2936.94 |
| Sports | 24 | 28 | 38% | −$2376.70 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 99 days before resolution. Average fill size $288.17; average spread paid 0.7¢; average book liquidity $223313.07. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-09-29: On the watchlist → Rejected — win rate rests on only 5 settled markets
Follow rebotsliaf on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed