Hot-Skull: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: margin on volume -2.2% below floor. wide spreads (avg 4.6c).
- Trades, 30 days
- 375 91 resolved · 24% of them
- Win rate
- 27% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -2% $4616.16 on $11488.83 traded
- Copyability
- 67 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Hot-Skull actually wins
Best category: Politics. Elections, nominations, legislation. Long horizons and news-driven repricing; a wallet that looks brilliant here often entered months early, which a follower cannot replicate.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 52 | 143 | 100% | $237.06 |
| Crypto | 50 | 2 | 0% | $0.00 |
| Other markets | 14 | 230 | 27% | −$1146.94 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 8 days before resolution. Average fill size $109.58; average spread paid 5.6¢; average book liquidity $42254.72. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-07: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -2.2% below floor
Follow Hot-Skull on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed