Refaelnadal: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: ROI -4.8% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 239 43 resolved · 18% of them
- Win rate
- 37% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -5% $2973.38 on $16530.56 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Refaelnadal actually wins
Best category: Geopolitics. Conflict, diplomacy, sanctions. Low fees, sparse books, and outcomes that reprice on headlines faster than a copy can arrive.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 56 | 2 | 100% | $484.61 |
| Other markets | 37 | 32 | 25% | −$759.30 |
| Crypto | 30 | 36 | 42% | −$1384.57 |
| Sports | 22 | 169 | 35% | −$3494.75 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 6 days before resolution. Average fill size $448.12; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow Refaelnadal on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed