Vilgefortz: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Too early to copy On the watchlist
Enters a median 91d before resolution — capital would sit idle. Reservation: win rate rests on only 4 settled markets; margin on volume -0.2% below floor.
- Trades, 30 days
- 354 79 resolved · 22% of them
- Win rate
- 86% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -0% $3320.92 on $135999.98 traded
- Copyability
- 81 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Vilgefortz actually wins
Best category: Geopolitics. Conflict, diplomacy, sanctions. Low fees, sparse books, and outcomes that reprice on headlines faster than a copy can arrive.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 56 | 175 | 100% | $1348.38 |
| Macro & economics | 50 | 60 | 0% | $9907.67 |
| Politics | 50 | 39 | 0% | −$2777.64 |
| Other markets | 35 | 80 | 84% | −$9463.45 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 91 days before resolution. Average fill size $1663.46; average spread paid 1.2¢; average book liquidity $422823.01. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow Vilgefortz on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed