papaebal: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: margin on volume -24.5% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 281 85 resolved · 30% of them
- Win rate
- 54% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -25% $6463.69 on $36178.48 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where papaebal actually wins
Best category: Geopolitics. Conflict, diplomacy, sanctions. Low fees, sparse books, and outcomes that reprice on headlines faster than a copy can arrive.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 50 | 2 | 0% | $0.00 |
| Sports | 27 | 7 | 0% | −$3362.25 |
| Other markets | 26 | 272 | 59% | −$23275.41 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry unknown (no end dates on sampled markets). Average fill size $386.87; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-05: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -24.5% below floor
Follow papaebal on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed