Bogdanreay: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: margin on volume -35.9% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 317 43 resolved · 14% of them
- Win rate
- 35% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -36% $6949.61 on $32973.54 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Bogdanreay actually wins
Best category: Geopolitics. Conflict, diplomacy, sanctions. Low fees, sparse books, and outcomes that reprice on headlines faster than a copy can arrive.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 50 | 7 | 0% | −$4325.94 |
| Crypto | 50 | 9 | 0% | −$379.99 |
| Sports | 36 | 10 | 0% | −$1484.49 |
| Other markets | 21 | 291 | 38% | −$73680.38 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 7 days before resolution. Average fill size $701.25; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-09-27: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -35.9% below floor
Follow Bogdanreay on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed