cigarettes: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Too illiquid to copy Followed by the desk
Typical market holds $3848 — below the $5000 floor. thin markets (avg liquidity $3848).
- Trades, 30 days
- 251 92 resolved · 37% of them
- Win rate
- 30% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- 39% $15064.72 on $443361.73 traded
- Copyability
- 57 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where cigarettes actually wins
Best category: Other markets. Esports, weather, science, and everything Polymarket does not file elsewhere. Esports dominates by volume.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other markets | 72 | 174 | 37% | $7474.16 |
| Macro & economics | 50 | 5 | 0% | $0.00 |
| Politics | 50 | 3 | 0% | $0.00 |
| Sports | 40 | 44 | 33% | −$64.10 |
| Geopolitics | 17 | 25 | 10% | −$76.02 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 3 days before resolution. Average fill size $75.53; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $3847.81. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow cigarettes on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed