tnl: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: margin on volume -6.0% below floor.
- Trades, 30 days
- 372 226 resolved · 61% of them
- Win rate
- 44% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -6% $7368.84 on $10607.59 traded
- Copyability
- 73 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where tnl actually wins
Best category: Politics. Elections, nominations, legislation. Long horizons and news-driven repricing; a wallet that looks brilliant here often entered months early, which a follower cannot replicate.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50 | 1 | 0% | $95.00 |
| Other markets | 38 | 340 | 39% | $190.58 |
| Geopolitics | 35 | 31 | 77% | −$2600.52 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 2 days before resolution. Average fill size $103.78; average spread paid 1.4¢; average book liquidity $57313.42. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-03: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -6.0% below floor
Follow tnl on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed