smellyEllie: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Too early to copy On the watchlist
Enters a median 76d before resolution — capital would sit idle. Reservation: win rate rests on only 7 settled markets; margin on volume 3.2% below floor. wide spreads (avg 10.9c).
- Trades, 30 days
- 349 30 resolved · 9% of them
- Win rate
- 57% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- 3% $2629.90 on $12058.26 traded
- Copyability
- 55 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where smellyEllie actually wins
Best category: Other markets. Esports, weather, science, and everything Polymarket does not file elsewhere. Esports dominates by volume.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other markets | 72 | 99 | 67% | $1002.31 |
| Politics | 71 | 211 | 50% | $1468.77 |
| Geopolitics | 50 | 38 | 0% | −$1351.81 |
| Culture & entertainment | 50 | 1 | 0% | $6.30 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 76 days before resolution. Average fill size $99.24; average spread paid 11.1¢; average book liquidity $92359.94. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow smellyEllie on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed