bonalddrunk: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: win rate rests on only 4 settled markets; margin on volume -1.1% below floor. wide spreads (avg 7.3c).
- Trades, 30 days
- 314 25 resolved · 8% of them
- Win rate
- 20% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -1% $5499.28 on $12497.28 traded
- Copyability
- 51 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where bonalddrunk actually wins
Best category: Politics. Elections, nominations, legislation. Long horizons and news-driven repricing; a wallet that looks brilliant here often entered months early, which a follower cannot replicate.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50 | 125 | 0% | $1055.21 |
| Macro & economics | 50 | 16 | 0% | −$1141.20 |
| Culture & entertainment | 50 | 16 | 0% | $127.41 |
| Sports | 50 | 11 | 0% | $99.73 |
| Geopolitics | 50 | 4 | 0% | $19.66 |
| Other markets | 18 | 142 | 20% | −$550.45 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 18 days before resolution. Average fill size $108.35; average spread paid 7.5¢; average book liquidity $20612.72. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-17: On the watchlist → Rejected — win rate rests on only 4 settled markets
Follow bonalddrunk on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed