notsharp: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable in one category only Rejected
Edge only in other — copy that category alone. Reservation: margin on volume -5.7% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 114 91 resolved · 80% of them
- Win rate
- 42% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -6% $4473.73 on $0.00 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where notsharp actually wins
Best category: Other markets. Esports, weather, science, and everything Polymarket does not file elsewhere. Esports dominates by volume.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other markets | 77 | 28 | 64% | $1195.14 |
| Sports | 17 | 86 | 33% | −$2744.57 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 2 days before resolution. Average fill size $237.70; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-15: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -5.7% below floor
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed