chiefphi: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable in one category only Rejected
Edge only in other — copy that category alone. Reservation: margin on volume -6.8% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 173 74 resolved · 43% of them
- Win rate
- 61% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -7% $4127.12 on $46203.94 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where chiefphi actually wins
Best category: Other markets. Esports, weather, science, and everything Polymarket does not file elsewhere. Esports dominates by volume.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other markets | 85 | 54 | 77% | $2029.83 |
| Sports | 22 | 119 | 33% | −$5748.03 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 4 hours before resolution. Average fill size $316.92; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-20: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -6.8% below floor
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed