xfile: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable in one category only On the watchlist
Edge only in sports — copy that category alone. Reservation: margin on volume 4.8% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 366 238 resolved · 65% of them
- Win rate
- 50% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- 5% $12495.36 on $28684.74 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where xfile actually wins
Best category: Sports. Match winners, spreads and totals. The deepest books on Polymarket and the fastest settlement, which makes sports the easiest category to copy on paper — and the one where fills matter most.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 73 | 14 | 73% | $995.35 |
| Other markets | 60 | 352 | 49% | $2669.21 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry unknown (no end dates on sampled markets). Average fill size $207.52; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow xfile on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed