Afornson: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable in one category only On the watchlist
Edge only in sports — copy that category alone. Reservation: margin on volume -23.5% below floor.
- Trades, 30 days
- 152 59 resolved · 39% of them
- Win rate
- 61% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -23% $5457.44 on $26195.26 traded
- Copyability
- 77 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Afornson actually wins
Best category: Sports. Match winners, spreads and totals. The deepest books on Polymarket and the fastest settlement, which makes sports the easiest category to copy on paper — and the one where fills matter most.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 65 | 7 | 57% | $4097.93 |
| Other markets | 28 | 145 | 62% | −$17164.08 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 4 hours before resolution. Average fill size $366.09; average spread paid 0.1¢; average book liquidity $49436.90. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow Afornson on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed