simpleman: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable On the watchlist
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: win rate rests on only 6 settled markets; margin on volume -2.9% below floor.
- Trades, 30 days
- 343 69 resolved · 20% of them
- Win rate
- 61% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -3% $6669.26 on $133632.83 traded
- Copyability
- 80 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where simpleman actually wins
Best category: Politics. Elections, nominations, legislation. Long horizons and news-driven repricing; a wallet that looks brilliant here often entered months early, which a follower cannot replicate.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50 | 10 | 0% | $1215.59 |
| Geopolitics | 50 | 1 | 0% | $0.00 |
| Other markets | 50 | 6 | 0% | $32.46 |
| Macro & economics | 27 | 326 | 61% | −$10594.00 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 47 days before resolution. Average fill size $931.12; average spread paid 1.8¢; average book liquidity $837707.85. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow simpleman on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed