jarosbill: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: ROI -22.0% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 356 139 resolved · 39% of them
- Win rate
- 68% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -22% $12228.47 on $28449.95 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where jarosbill actually wins
Best category: Sports. Match winners, spreads and totals. The deepest books on Polymarket and the fastest settlement, which makes sports the easiest category to copy on paper — and the one where fills matter most.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 30 | 333 | 71% | −$54287.43 |
| Other markets | 30 | 23 | 57% | −$8158.48 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 6 days before resolution. Average fill size $797.12; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow jarosbill on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed