Alexfirst: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: margin on volume -12.5% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 67 32 resolved · 48% of them
- Win rate
- 19% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -12% $6781.72 on $1448.00 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Alexfirst actually wins
Best category: Sports. Match winners, spreads and totals. The deepest books on Polymarket and the fastest settlement, which makes sports the easiest category to copy on paper — and the one where fills matter most.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 51 | 6 | 100% | $10.73 |
| Geopolitics | 40 | 2 | 0% | −$168.26 |
| Other markets | 16 | 59 | 17% | −$3308.61 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 5 hours before resolution. Average fill size $413.99; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-09-26: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -12.5% below floor
Follow Alexfirst on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed