failstober: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: win rate rests on only 5 settled markets; margin on volume -47.3% below floor.
- Trades, 30 days
- 55 50 resolved · 91% of them
- Win rate
- 64% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -47% $9936.16 on $315.63 traded
- Copyability
- 84 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where failstober actually wins
Best category: Politics. Elections, nominations, legislation. Long horizons and news-driven repricing; a wallet that looks brilliant here often entered months early, which a follower cannot replicate.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50 | 5 | 0% | $1630.24 |
| Sports | 29 | 50 | 64% | −$21447.58 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 1 days before resolution. Average fill size $761.86; average spread paid 0.1¢; average book liquidity $371431.19. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-09-30: On the watchlist → Rejected — win rate rests on only 5 settled markets
Follow failstober on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed