almost-never: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Followed by the desk
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories.
- Trades, 30 days
- 348 293 resolved · 84% of them
- Win rate
- 98% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- 17% $13313.14 on $84346.65 traded
- Copyability
- 78 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where almost-never actually wins
Best category: Politics. Elections, nominations, legislation. Long horizons and news-driven repricing; a wallet that looks brilliant here often entered months early, which a follower cannot replicate.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 98 | 344 | 98% | $40065.40 |
| Other markets | 53 | 4 | 100% | $11.25 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 3 hours before resolution. Average fill size $690.41; average spread paid 1.9¢; average book liquidity $162543.68. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
The desk has judged 3 of this wallet's fills: 0 copied on paper, 1 watched, 2 skipped. No copies have settled yet.
Recent fills
| Market | Side | Price | Size | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? | BUY Yes | 99.0¢ | $198.00 | 2026-10-05 |
| Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY Yes | 99.0¢ | $5.31 | 2026-10-05 |
| Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY Yes | 99.0¢ | $19.38 | 2026-10-05 |
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-05: On the watchlist → Followed by the desk — score 80
Follow almost-never on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed