Niseko: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: ROI -5.3% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 261 82 resolved · 31% of them
- Win rate
- 41% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -5% $4167.84 on $3400.00 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Niseko actually wins
Best category: Crypto. Price-level and up/down markets, many resolving within hours. High turnover, thin edges, and the highest taker fee tier on Polymarket.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 41 | 156 | 35% | $176.92 |
| Sports | 40 | 3 | 0% | −$729.76 |
| Other markets | 28 | 102 | 55% | −$912.16 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 8 hours before resolution. Average fill size $105.63; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow Niseko on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed