Beardsley: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: margin on volume -33.5% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 266 29 resolved · 11% of them
- Win rate
- 72% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -34% $5636.22 on $21620.84 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Beardsley actually wins
Best category: Sports. Match winners, spreads and totals. The deepest books on Polymarket and the fastest settlement, which makes sports the easiest category to copy on paper — and the one where fills matter most.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 43 | 152 | 80% | −$15018.50 |
| Other markets | 34 | 114 | 71% | −$7258.62 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 6 days before resolution. Average fill size $249.79; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-04: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -33.5% below floor
Follow Beardsley on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed