Warren-Buffett: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable in one category only Followed by the desk
Edge only in other — copy that category alone.
- Trades, 30 days
- 341 119 resolved · 35% of them
- Win rate
- 58% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- 8% $1335.13 on $2.70 traded
- Copyability
- 78 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where Warren-Buffett actually wins
Best category: Other markets. Esports, weather, science, and everything Polymarket does not file elsewhere. Esports dominates by volume.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other markets | 87 | 170 | 80% | $15754.01 |
| Politics | 50 | 40 | 0% | $1165.44 |
| Macro & economics | 37 | 4 | 25% | −$4559.99 |
| Geopolitics | 18 | 127 | 33% | −$5960.63 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 17 days before resolution. Average fill size $245.25; average spread paid 1.2¢; average book liquidity $115383.07. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
The desk has judged 90 of this wallet's fills: 0 copied on paper, 80 watched, 10 skipped. No copies have settled yet.
Recent fills
| Market | Side | Price | Size | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31? | BUY No | 94.0¢ | $10.56 | 2026-09-26 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL No | 74.0¢ | $222.00 | 2026-09-26 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL No | 74.0¢ | $37.00 | 2026-09-26 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY No | 99.2¢ | $74.70 | 2026-09-26 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY Yes | 11.0¢ | $1.65 | 2026-09-26 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY Yes | 11.0¢ | $0.46 | 2026-09-26 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY No | 99.2¢ | $2.00 | 2026-09-26 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY No | 99.2¢ | $2.00 | 2026-09-26 |
Follow Warren-Buffett on paper, at your size
Stratex Hub mirrors the desk's copies from published wallets into a paper account sized to your bankroll, and benchmarks every one against blind copying. No keys, no funds, nothing to install. Free for 90 days.
Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed