arbmonitor: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: margin on volume -16.8% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 297 46 resolved · 15% of them
- Win rate
- 54% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -17% $4481.89 on $17031.34 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where arbmonitor actually wins
Best category: Sports. Match winners, spreads and totals. The deepest books on Polymarket and the fastest settlement, which makes sports the easiest category to copy on paper — and the one where fills matter most.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 50 | 1 | 0% | −$26.59 |
| Geopolitics | 50 | 2 | 0% | −$110.08 |
| Other markets | 26 | 294 | 54% | −$12647.99 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry unknown (no end dates on sampled markets). Average fill size $256.25; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-03: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -16.8% below floor
Follow arbmonitor on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed