updowduke: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: margin on volume -12.7% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 294 51 resolved · 17% of them
- Win rate
- 71% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -13% $3303.42 on $9791.92 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where updowduke actually wins
Best category: Sports. Match winners, spreads and totals. The deepest books on Polymarket and the fastest settlement, which makes sports the easiest category to copy on paper — and the one where fills matter most.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 40 | 186 | 74% | −$229.32 |
| Other markets | 33 | 108 | 67% | −$5220.31 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 7 days before resolution. Average fill size $146.52; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
How the desk's view changed
- 2026-10-01: On the watchlist → Rejected — margin on volume -12.7% below floor
Follow updowduke on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed