shaw: is this Polymarket wallet worth copying?
Copyable Rejected
Liquid markets, entries we can follow, edge across categories. Reservation: ROI -19.5% below floor. book quality unknown for the sampled markets.
- Trades, 30 days
- 365 207 resolved · 57% of them
- Win rate
- 14% on resolved markets
- Margin on volume
- -20% $18130.50 on $53050.19 traded
- Copyability
- 54 liquidity, spread, post-fill drift
Where shaw actually wins
Best category: Other markets. Esports, weather, science, and everything Polymarket does not file elsewhere. Esports dominates by volume.
| Category | Score | Markets | Win rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other markets | 60 | 23 | 33% | $3300.67 |
| Politics | 50 | 1 | 0% | $0.00 |
| Sports | 7 | 341 | 13% | −$23512.41 |
Could you have copied these trades?
Typical entry about 6 days before resolution. Average fill size $283.67; average spread paid 0.0¢; average book liquidity $0.00. Profit is spread across markets rather than one lucky call.
Follow shaw on paper, at your size
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Open the desk ↗ How the verdict is computed